Wetterextreme und soziale Instabilität: Nehmen Konflikte zu?

Weather extremes and social instability: are conflicts on the rise? The nexus of weather extremes and societal instability is complex. Nonetheless, it is possible to use the understanding of the mechanisms of path-dependent processes, social networks, and social dynamics to assess the challenges and changes that are caused by weather extremes. It is possible that weather extremes, which only last for short periods of time, have a distinctly different impact on society than weather extremes that occur over extended time periods. Cascading effects can lead to secondary adverse effects on mobility or the distribution of goods and services even in geographically distant locations. And if the mechanisms of the digitalization are considered as well, it is even possible that the societal impacts of weather extremes even occur prior to the extreme events, independent of whether the extreme event subsequently actually takes place. An increase in conflict frequency can on the one hand be explained using the climate change-conflict nexus. On the other hand, conflicts or cooperative trends can intensify if conflictive or peaceful social patterns, which are thematically connected to weather extremes and their societal implications, are reinforced. Additionally, further conflicts can arise or already existing conflicts can intensify if economic shortages create new competition for goods or if people in large gatherings openly support one side of a given conflict. By doing so, the dynamics of already existing conflicts can be induced into previously unrelated tense settings. The extensive use of mobile digital devices and the associated digitalization and network generation makes it possible for organizations that are geographically unrelated to influence local conflict dynamics politically, ideologically, or religiously.