On the directional accuracy of survey forecasts: The case of gold and silver

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Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2013
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Forecast
  • Inflation expectations
  • Professional forecasters
  • Monetary Policy
  • Economic Growth
  • Exports
  • Forecast
  • Inflation expectations
  • Professional forecasters
  • Monetary Policy
  • Economic Growth
  • Exports
Beschreibung:
  • We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the directional accuracy of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast, forecasters have no market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change in the gold price. Combining forecasts of both metal prices to set up a multivariate market-timing test yields no evidence of joint predictability of the directions of change of the prices of gold and silver. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH
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oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/f13d353a-69cf-4869-8745-83e93537b1f1