The effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture under different crop technologies, namely conservation agriculture, Falbedia albida, optimal fertilisation and intensive farming, were analysed against the conventional subsistence farming in Malawi. A biophysical economic modelling approach was used over a 60-year period to assess changes in crop productivity, total welfare and land-use options. The results indicate varying decreases in crop yield. For instance, when compared to the crop yield in 2010, maize yield decreased by -20textpercent under subsistence farming and -0.1textpercent under intensive farming in the seventh decade (2061 to 2070). Adaptation to climate change effects increased total welfare by 24textpercent and producer revenues by 44textpercent when compared to no adaptation. To optimise the welfare of smallholder farmers in Malawi, the study recommends increasing the adoption of intensive farming, conservation agriculture and Falbedia albida to at least 9.5 12textpercent and 10textpercent of total cultivated area in the 7th decade respectively. The study also reveals that farmerstextquotesingle inability to optimise land use has a higher negative impact on welfare when compared to the effect from climate change. This means that the optimisation of crop and technology choices may play a more vital role in improving farmerstextquotesingle welfare than mere adaptation to climate change.
The effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture under different crop technologies, namely conservation agriculture, Falbedia albida, optimal fertilisation and intensive farming, were analysed against the conventional subsistence farming in Malawi. A biophysical economic modelling approach was used over a 60-year period to assess changes in crop productivity, total welfare and land-use options. The results indicate varying decreases in crop yield. For instance, when compared to the crop yield in 2010, maize yield decreased by -20textpercent under subsistence farming and -0.1textpercent under intensive farming in the seventh decade (2061 to 2070). Adaptation to climate change effects increased total welfare by 24textpercent and producer revenues by 44textpercent when compared to no adaptation. To optimise the welfare of smallholder farmers in Malawi, the study recommends increasing the adoption of intensive farming, conservation agriculture and Falbedia albida to at least 9.5 12textpercent and 10textpercent of total cultivated area in the 7th decade respectively. The study also reveals that farmerstextquotesingle inability to optimise land use has a higher negative impact on welfare when compared to the effect from climate change. This means that the optimisation of crop and technology choices may play a more vital role in improving farmerstextquotesingle welfare than mere adaptation to climate change.