In order to integrate increasing shares of fluctuating electricity production into the energy system as comprehensively as possible, the overall energy system has to become more flexible. By coupling the heating and electricity sector, decentralized power-to-heat systems – such as electric heating cartridges installed in the heat storages of private end customer heating systems—can increase the demand-side system flexibility and simultaneously help to integrate unused amounts of electricity into the energy system. In order to be able to market such demand-side flexibility on the established spot markets for electricity, the potentials for flexible demand at the level of the end customer heating systems must be predicted as reliably and extensively as possible. Against this background, a control concept for decentralized direct-electrical power-to-heat systems is proposed and conceptually validated, which would fundamentally enable a forward-looking and continuous marketing of existing potentials for flexible demand on the established spot markets for electricity. As part of the conceptual validation, it is shown that this kind of planning is possible in a data driven manner achieving sufficient accuracy even with an overall small volume of measurement data. The concept thus offers the potential for a high degree of transferability to various end customer heating systems.
