Information rigidities:comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel

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Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2015
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Forecast
  • Inflation expectations
  • Professional forecasters
  • Monetary Policy
  • Economic Growth
  • Exports
  • Forecast
  • Inflation expectations
  • Professional forecasters
  • Monetary Policy
  • Economic Growth
  • Exports
Beschreibung:
  • We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual-level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior which is more in line "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw & Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there are no systematic differences between advanced and emerging economies.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH

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oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/c9b944ec-2535-4d02-b251-f74819030458