Modellierung von auswirkungen verschiedener dürre- und anpassungsszenarien auf die agrarische pflanzenproduktion in Österreich,Modelling impacts of drought and adaptation scenarios on crop production in Austria:Modellierung von auswirkungen verschiedener dürre- und anpassungsszenarien auf die agrarische pflanzenproduktion in Österreich

We use a spatially explicit, integrated drought assessment framework to (i) assess drought scenario impacts on Austrian crop production, (ii) identify optimal crop production portfolios to effectively adapt to drought scenarios, and (iii) quantify the value of drought prediction for adaptation. The assessment framework consists of a statistical climate model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and a portfolio optimization model. Model results at national level indicate that, under drought scenarios, rain-fed cropping may lead to average crop yield losses between 1.7% and 6.9%, compared to the baseline climate scenario with similar precipitation sums than in the past. Optimal crop production portfolios including irrigation intensities are effective for adapting to droughts leading to almost stable average annual crop yields. The average annual value of drought prediction is highest in the semi-arid regions in eastern Austria and amounts to 200 €/ha or more.