Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Link:
Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2020
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Sea Ice
  • CMIP6
  • Arctic
  • Climate Models
  • Model evaluation
Beschreibung:
  • Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi-model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area <1 million km2) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 examined here.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH

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Quelldatensatz
oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/5dce00fd-af7f-405a-a7f0-e1c943ce5692