Unveiling the backlash in public opinion on climate change:a longitudinal study of climate change-related population segments and communicative engagement in Germany
This study explores potential shifts in climate change-related perceptions and behavior over time and how this corresponds to changing communicative engagement with climate change. This is done through surveys conducted in Germany during UN climate summits in 2015 (n = 1477), 2018 (n = 1044), 2019 (n = 1000), 2021 (n= 1000) and 2023 (n = 1015). A latent profile analysis identifies five population segments regarding perceptions and behavioral engagement, and shows how they also differ in their communicative engagement: Convinced Engaged, Convinced Disengaged, Uninformed Engaged, Uninformed Disengaged and Disengaged Deniers. We find a small group of climate change deniers (Disengaged Deniers) and a segment that is unknowledgeable but politically engaged (Uninformed Engaged) and frequently uses entertainment media and social media. The time series reveals a strong peak in climate-friendly perceptions and related communicative engagement in 2019. The most recent survey, however, shows a significant backlash against climate protection. The segments less convinced of anthropogenic climate change have increased in size, notably the Disengaged Deniers. The latest results potentially indicate an impending climate change fatigue or frustration with climate policy which is accompanied by a lower level of issue-specific media use and conversations with others highlighting the importance of analyzing the connection between attitudes, behavior and different communication practices.