Trends und Projektionen von Dürren und Hitzewellen

Trends and projections of droughts and heatwaves: Droughts and heatwaves pose a significant threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide. Scientific evidence points to a global increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, with some regions being disproportionately affected. Climate change combined with natural climate variability are the driving forces behind the recent increase in the frequency and severity of droughts and heatwaves around the world. These extreme weather events put pressure on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources and human health. Here we investigate the trends in droughts and heatwaves and the reliability of climate models in predicting future conditions. We use a combination of historical observational data and current climate model simulations. Our analysis shows a significant upward trend in both the intensity of droughts and the frequency of heat waves in several regions (e.g. around the Mediterranean, in the Middle East, in southwestern North America, in southwestern South America and in tropical rainforests). Climate projections for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate not only a continuation of this trend, but also a further increase in the rate of warming. These extremely high temperatures (heat waves) and periods of particularly low precipitation (droughts) reduce water resources and harvests, put a strain on health, intensify forest fires and damage ecosystems. Understanding the trends (even better) is a prerequisite for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.