Inverse stage migration patterns in North American patients undergoing local prostate cancer treatment: a contemporary population-based update in light of the 2012 USPSTF recommendations

PURPOSE: Recent studies demonstrated ongoing inverse stage migration in prostate cancer (PCa) patients towards more advanced and unfavorable tumors. The USPSTF grade D recommendation may impact this trend in North American patients. We assessed contemporary stage migration and treatment trends in a large North American cohort diagnosed with PCa 2009-2014.

METHODS: Time-trend analyses were performed in patients within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, with complete data of clinical tumor stage, biopsy Gleason score, and validated PSA values, resulting in 211,645 assessable patients. Patients were stratified according to their different treatment methods [radical prostatectomy (RP), radiotherapy (RT), and no local treatment (NLT)] and according to clinical and pathological risk stratification (D'Amico and CAPRA-S score).

RESULTS: Over time, proportions of D'Amico low-risk (LR) decreased, with an increase in intermediate-to-high-risk (IR/HR) patients. These trends were more distinct in men ≥ 70 years. NLT proportions increased, most notably in D'Amico LR and/or older patients. Conversely, RP proportions remained stable in younger HR and increased in older HR patients. Similar patterns were demonstrated in the RP-treated subgroup: D'Amico HR, pT3, and/or lymph-node invasion or CAPRA-S HR proportions increased from 23.5 to 30.8, 24.3 to 32.9, and 10.7 to 16.3% (each p ≤ 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS: Inverse stage migration with increase of unfavorable PCa continues in most contemporary North American patients. However, a paradigm shift to treat LR patients with less invasive methods (NLT) was demonstrated. Contrary, HR patients increasingly undergo LT. Future studies with long-term follow-up might answer if inverse stage migration vs. treatment trends translate into different PCa metastases/mortality rates vs. proposed NLT benefits, particularly related to USPSTF-recommended reduced PSA screening.