Ecological forecasting under climate change:the case of Baltic cod
- Link:
- Autor/in:
- Erscheinungsjahr:
- 2010
- Medientyp:
- Text
- Schlagworte:
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- Animals
- Baltic States
- Climate Change
- Conservation of Natural Resources/methods
- Fisheries/methods
- Food Chain
- Forecasting/methods
- Gadus morhua/growth & development
- Models, Biological
- Oceans and Seas
- Population Dynamics
- Risk Assessment
- Beschreibung:
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Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.
- Lizenz:
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- info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
- Quellsystem:
- Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH
Interne Metadaten
- Quelldatensatz
- oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/ace9dd44-3623-4153-9977-a1d8fd000a8b