Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles

Link:
Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2013
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Bubble
  • Predictability
  • Dividend growth
  • Models
  • Risks
  • Finance
  • C15
  • G01
  • G12
  • House prices
  • speculative bubbles
  • R31
  • China
  • recursive unit root tests
  • Bubble
  • Predictability
  • Dividend growth
  • Models
  • Risks
  • Finance
Beschreibung:
  • The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009-10 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak. © 2013 National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH
Interne Metadaten
Quelldatensatz
oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/d915afc9-e86b-4a62-bc98-2fcecd70eca3