Data snooping in equity premium prediction

Link:
Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2021
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Data snooping
  • Equity premium
  • Multiple testing
  • Prediction
  • Return predictability
Beschreibung:
  • We analyze the performance of a comprehensive set of equity premium forecasting strategies. All strategies were found to outperform the mean in previous academic publications. However, using a multiple testing framework to account for data snooping, our findings support Welch and Goyal (2008) in that almost all equity premium forecasts fail to beat the mean out-of-sample. Only few forecasting strategies that are based on Ferreira and Santa-Clara's (2011) sum-of-the-parts approach generate robust and statistically significant economic gains relative to the historical mean even after controlling for data snooping and accounting for transaction costs.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH

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Quelldatensatz
oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/bdaad873-973d-469c-8646-e9fa45fe8e43