Marine particle flux is the key mechanism of vertical transport of organic carbon from the ocean’s surface into the deep sea. Global warming changes the physical drivers that control marine primary production. This study examines the relationship between physical drivers and marine production at the outer boundary of the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) in respect of global warming, as a component of the GENUS project at the University of Hamburg. Modelled surface primary production and detritus flux are compared with nine sediment trap time series (between 1988 and 2013) in the regions Walvis Ridge, Walvis Bay, Luderitz and Orange River along the continental slope to reveal the seasonal particle flux pattern, biogeochemical composition and possible implications triggered by changes in physical conditions. Both modelled and sampled particle flux patterns are highly correspondent (79%) in the bimodal seasonal cycle with plankton blooms in austral spring and autumn. The homogenous biogeochemical composition of the particle flux is carbonate dominated. Although the spring bloom is caused by coastal upwelling, it shows a minor influence of an opal-enriched nutrient supply by upwelling. The autumn blooms can be traced back to the nutrient supply by vertical mixing at the onset of autumn. Since global warming will lead to a higher stratified ocean, it results in less marine production in autumn associated to vertical mixing. The possible intensification of upwelling may well up the nutrient depleted Eastern South Atlantic Central Water (ESACW), which will reduce the primary production in spring in the future.