Effects of violence by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) against Palestinian civilians on attitudes towards anti-Semitic protest behavior among people in Germany: Results of two survey experiments conducted before and after October 7th 2023. Paper presented at the 82nd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago (IL), April 5th, 2025.

To assess the potential impact of international developments on public attitudes in Germany, we regularly conduct survey experiments. These experiments are embedded in the representative Survey „Menschen in Deutschland International“ („People in Germany: International) which is conducted bimonthly since November 2022. One important issue are effects of the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East on political attitudes and protest behavior among people living in Germany. At present increases of the prevalence of anti-Semitic prejudice as well as an increase of violence against jewish people and jewish institution are a heavily debated social and political Problem in Germany.

In an initial survey experiment conducted in May 2023 we examined the impact of reports on the use of armed force against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank on antisemitic and anti-Israel protest behavior in Germany. In this experiment, we systematically varied whether the violence described in the scenarios was perpetrated by the Israeli military or by Jewish settlers. We found that violence committed by the Israeli military significantly increased acceptance of antisemitic protest behavior. However, this effect was almost exclusively observed among individuals who already exhibited traditional antisemitic prejudices. No effects were observed for identical violence carried out by Jewish settlers.

In a follow-up study conducted in September 2024, we replicated and expanded this experiment. The new study aimed to examine 1) whether the effects observed in May 2023 were still present in 2024, following Hamas' attack on Israel, 2) whether these findings were region-specific or applicable to attacks by the Israeli military in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and southern Lebanon, and 3) whether the moderating effect of traditional antisemitic prejudices could also be observed for pre-existing Israel-related antisemitic attitudes.