Evaluation of climate models

Link:
Autor/in:
Verlag/Körperschaft:
Cambridge University Press
Erscheinungsjahr:
2013
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Biogeochemistry
  • Carbon
  • Carbon dioxide
  • Climate change
  • Earth (planet)
  • Biogeochemical cycle
  • Carbon dioxides (CO)
  • Climate stabilization
  • Coordinated modeling
  • Detection and attributions
  • Multiple time scale
  • Performance metrics
  • Surface temperatures
  • Climate models
Beschreibung:
  • Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change These models allow for policy-relevant calculations such as the carbon dioxide (CO) emissions compatible with a specified climate stabilization target. In addition, the range of climate variables and processes that have been evaluated has greatly expanded, and differences between models and observations are increasingly quantified using ‘performance metrics’. In this chapter, model evaluation covers simulation of the mean climate, of historical climate change, of variability on multiple time scales and of regional modes of variability. This evaluation is based on recent internationally coordinated model experiments, including simulations of historic and paleo climate, specialized experiments designed to provide insight into key climate processes and feedbacks and regional climate downscaling. Figure 9.44 provides an overview of model capabilities as assessed in this chapter, including improvements, or lack thereof, relative to models assessed in the AR4. The chapter concludes with an assessment of recent work connecting model performance to the detection and attribution of climate change as well as to future projections. {9.1.2, 9.8.1, Table 9.1, Figure 9.44}. The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4. © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014.
  • Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change These models allow for policy-relevant calculations such as the carbon dioxide (CO) emissions compatible with a specified climate stabilization target. In addition, the range of climate variables and processes that have been evaluated has greatly expanded, and differences between models and observations are increasingly quantified using ‘performance metrics’. In this chapter, model evaluation covers simulation of the mean climate, of historical climate change, of variability on multiple time scales and of regional modes of variability. This evaluation is based on recent internationally coordinated model experiments, including simulations of historic and paleo climate, specialized experiments designed to provide insight into key climate processes and feedbacks and regional climate downscaling. Figure 9.44 provides an overview of model capabilities as assessed in this chapter, including improvements, or lack thereof, relative to models assessed in the AR4. The chapter concludes with an assessment of recent work connecting model performance to the detection and attribution of climate change as well as to future projections. {9.1.2, 9.8.1, Table 9.1, Figure 9.44}. The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4. © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH
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Quelldatensatz
oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/a84bc432-a1ae-4ded-bceb-d53c401b9802