Postponing the issue date of allowances in a cap-and-trade scheme, by e.g. a reserve mechanism, impacts the time profile of low-carbon investments. If the postponement constrains intertemporal arbitrage, short-term investments increase but long-term investments are deterred. This effect aggravates the shortage of long-term investments at least partially attributed to firms’ impatience. The cancellation of allowances agreed for Phase IV of the EU ETS is suitable to counteract the negative effects of cap-neutral postponement on long-term investments—by making the reserve redundant. All effects crucially depend on how firms form expectations about future allowance prices.
Postponing the issue date of allowances in a cap-and-trade scheme, by e.g. a reserve mechanism, impacts the time profile of low-carbon investments. If the postponement constrains intertemporal arbitrage, short-term investments increase but long-term investments are deterred. This effect aggravates the shortage of long-term investments at least partially attributed to firms’ impatience. The cancellation of allowances agreed for Phase IV of the EU ETS is suitable to counteract the negative effects of cap-neutral postponement on long-term investments—by making the reserve redundant. All effects crucially depend on how firms form expectations about future allowance prices.