Consistent nonparametric change point detection combining CUSUM and marked empirical processes

Link:
Autor/in:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2020
Medientyp:
Text
Schlagworte:
  • Bootstrap
  • change point detection
  • cumulative sums
  • distribution-free test
  • heteroscedasticity
  • kernel estimation
  • nonparametric regression
  • sequential empirical process
Beschreibung:
  • A weakly dependent time series regression model with multivariate covariates and univariate observations is considered, for which we develop a procedure to detect whether the nonparametric conditional mean function is stable in time against change point alternatives. Our proposal is based on a modified CUSUM type test procedure, which uses a sequential marked empirical process of residuals. We show weak convergence of the considered process to a centered Gaussian process under the null hypothesis of no change in the mean function and a stationarity assumption. This requires some sophisticated arguments for sequential empirical processes of weakly dependent variables. As a consequence we obtain convergence of Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type test statistics. The proposed procedure acquires a very simple limiting distribution and nice consistency properties, features from which related tests are lacking. We moreover suggest a bootstrap version of the procedure and discuss its applicability in the case of unstable variances.
Lizenz:
  • info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Quellsystem:
Forschungsinformationssystem der UHH

Interne Metadaten
Quelldatensatz
oai:www.edit.fis.uni-hamburg.de:publications/632c3030-8f2a-432a-99c4-8ea2e6b07036