Aircraft economies of scale do exist but are challenging to capitalize due to operational, technical and regulatory constraints. This study analyses the impact of a broad, systematic fleet up-gauging on COC (cash operating cost), fuel consumption, utilization and ATFM (air traffic flow management) delay for different frequency reduction scenarios. A fleet assignment model is applied to frequency-reduced, European high-density routes to generate COC-minimal fleet assignments. Due to the long-term nature of the required fleet adjustments the analysis is based on a timeframe of 20 years (2020 – 2040). Assuming traffic and ATFM delay levels as forecasted by EUROCONTROL, frequency reduction becomes increasingly beneficial from 2030 on. Particularly, in a scenario where up-gauging is limited to single-aisle aircraft COC-and fuel consumption benefits are the highest. In 2040 approximately EUR 74 million in COC, 12 million kg of fuel and 18 million minutes of ATFM delay could be avoided on the assessed routes. Up-gauging the fleet into the twin-aisle segment yields further ATFM delay reductions but increases COC and fuel consumption. The potential market entry of a NMA (new midsize airplane) could further increase the economic and ecologic attractiveness of up-gauging resulting from a frequency limit.
