Development of the coronavirus epidemic in the German federal states up to july 2020,Entwicklung der Coronavirus-Epidemie in den deutschen Bundesländern bis Juli 2020

Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV- 2) epidemic in Germany poses a major challenge for primary care. The aim of the study was to describe the development of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during the first phase of the epidemic in German federals states using a mathematical model. Methods Data from the Robert Koch Institute were used for modeling. A hierarchical logistic approach was utilized with the assumption that the dynamics of the epidemic are similar across federal states. Results The model was suitable for estimating the cumulative incidence of infections and deaths until the end of July 2020 accurately. Large differences between federal states were observed regarding the expected maximum incidence of infections and deaths at the end of the current epidemic wave. The inflection point between the accelerating and the decelerating phases of the epidemic was estimated to have fallen uniformly on the beginning of April 2020 in most federal states. Conclusions As long as its limitations are taken into account, the presented approach can be used for modeling the development of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths for distinct epidemic waves. Further investigation of regional heterogeneity of epidemiological and health care aspects could contribute to a better understanding of evolution of the epidemic and a more effective preparation for its progression.