Predictors of trajectories of obsessive-compulsive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population in Germany

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with an increase in obsessive-compulsive disorder/symptoms (OCD/OCS). However, knowledge is limited regarding the trajectories of OCS during the pandemic, as well as their predictors and mechanisms (e.g., experiential avoidance, EA). The aim of this study was to describe the trajectories of OCS and the identification of associated factors. We assessed 1207 participants of the general population in March 2020 (t1) and June 2020 (t2). Pre-pandemic data was available from March 2014 for a subsample (n = 519). To define trajectories, we determined OCS status (OCS+/-). We performed a hierarchical multinomial logistic regression to investigate predictors of trajectories. Between t1 and t2, 66% of participants had an asymptomatic trajectory (OCS-/OCS-); 18% had a continuously symptomatic trajectory (OCS+/OCS+). Ten percent had a delayed-onset trajectory (OCS-/OCS+), and the recovery trajectory group (OCS+/OCS-) was the smallest group (6%). Higher education reduced the odds of an OCS+/OCS- trajectory. OCS in 2014 was associated with increased odds of showing an OCS+/OCS+ or OCS-/OCS+ trajectory. When EA at t1 and change in EA from t1 to t2 were added to the model, higher EA at t1 was associated with increased odds of scoring above the cut score on one or more of the assessments. A higher decrease in EA from t1 to t2 reduced the probability of showing an OCS+/OCS+ and an OCS-/OCS+ trajectory. While the current data supports a slight increase in OCS during the pandemic, trajectories differed, and EA seems to represent an important predictor for an unfavorable development.